DATE: August 2, 2012
FROM: Ron Nehring, Chief Strategist, Emken for U.S. Senate
RE: LATEST CALIFORNIA SURVEY FURTHER ERODES FEINSTEIN CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AS VOTERS INSIST STATE IS ON THE WRONG TRACK; INTENSE DISSATISFACTION OVER STATE’S DIRECTION
The conventional wisdom surrounding the U.S. Senate race in California continues to be challenged by persistent polling data showing incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) underperforming and far weaker than previously believed.
The latest blow to the Feinstein campaign comes in the form of the CBRT Pepperdine poll released this morning:
A safe bet would be that even though the voters fire her she will get a job requiring on unionized elevator operators and all we will her from the former 79 year senator is, “Going down?”
- Compared with the Field Poll released last month, Sen. Feinstein’s lead has shrunk from 19% to 12.3% among all voters, and just 10.3% among those who will “definitely” vote.
- It is widely accepted that any incumbent polling below 50% has cause for concern, especially when the incumbent is already well known to the electorate.
- Feinstein continues to poll well under 50%, and leads with just 45.9% among all voters. By contrast, President Obama is polling at 52.4%, or 6.5% better than Feinstein, who has been in the office for nearly 20 years.
- To say things have dramatically changed when this was posted on June 26th of this year is an understatement.
- Having had the personal pleasure of listening to Elizabeth talk with constituents she predicted this would happen. Since the days of President Eisenhower when the economy was in bad shape, the undecided voters have turned from the incumbent and Elizabeth Emken will be an excellent choice to represent the entire state of California in the United States Senate. See her background, credentials and accomplishments, here.
The California political environment continues to be a hostile one for anyone who is perceived to be in charge. Democrats control the Governor’s office, both houses of the state legislature, a majority of the Congressional delegation, and both U.S. Senate seats. Democrat elected officials and candidates cannot escape the fact they will be held responsible for the state’s downward trajectory.
- An overwhelming 73.1% of voters believe the state to be on the wrong track.
- Although a plurality of the state’s voters are of his party, Gov. Jerry Brown’s approval ratings continue to be upside down: 41.7% of voters view him favorably, while 50.8% hold an unfavorable view. In elections we know emotion drives behavior, which is why we pay careful attention to voter intensity as a key driver of turnout. Remarkably, while only 8.2% of voters hold a “very favorable” view of the Democrat governor, three times as many voters hold a “very unfavorable” view (25.6%).
- Among the 19% of California voters who consider themselves moderates or independent, a key constituency, Brown’s numbers are upside down by 11.9% (40.2% fav to 52.1% unfav), making him an ineffective messenger to swing voters going into the fall.
- The Democrat-controlled state legislature fares even worse, with 76.7% of voters holding an unfavorable view compared to just 15% who view it favorably. Only 0.7% of Californians hold a “very favorable” view of the legislature, which we call the “Democrat legislative staffer vote.”
LABOR UNIONS HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY ( complete article below)